March Labour Power Survey: Whole employment: 25.7k from 10.7k (revised from four.6k). Unemployment charge: 5.zero% from four.9% (unrevised four.9%). Participation charge: 65.7% from 65.6% (unrevised 65.6%).
Whole employment rose 25.7k in March, stronger than the market median estimate of 15okay. The three month common is now 23.7k, from 21.8k in February, indicative of a sturdy pattern within the labour market to this point in 2019. Within the 12 months to March employment has lifted 305okay or 2.four%. Our Jobs Index is pointing a tempo of progress round 2.3percentyr whereas jobs adverts counsel that whereas progress ought to be a bit of softer than this it nonetheless ought to be stronger than 2percentyr.
An extra indication of the strong nature of labour demand is that full-time employment rose 48.3k in March, to be up 289.8k/three.four% within the 12 months, whereas hours work lifted zero.7% within the month to be up three.0percentyr.
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In March the unemployment charge did drift larger, from four.9% to five.zero% (four.94% to five.05% so a whisker away from rounding to five.1%) because the elevate in participation (65.66% from 65.58%) resulted in a 42.7k achieve within the labour power. The labour power grew at a 2.zero% tempo within the 12 months to March.
By state unemployment was flat in NSW at a nationwide low of four.three% (employment fell 2.6k following a –6.7k in February) whereas it fell to four.6% in Victoria from four.7% although there was a sturdy 10.0k achieve in employment following a strong 6.4k achieve in February. For now, although the labour market is softening in NSW by way of employment unemployment is holding the report low with the assist of falling participation. NSW has had an incredible diploma of weak point in cyclical industries than different states at this cut-off date (development and manufacturing particularly) whereas it’s also reporting job shedding in some structural sectors (well being & training).
Unemployment is lifting in Victoria as participation there continues to float larger. Victoria can also be the state that has reported sturdy good points in authorities in addition to white collar employment that’s greater than offsetting solely modest weak point in cyclical sectors For additional data please see “Some insights into the RBA employment puzzle” and “Australian employment good points have been in whereas collar industries”).
Exterior of Victoria the opposite states to make a constructive contribution to employment in March was Qld with +10.4k (unemployment rose to six.1% from 5.four% on rising participation) and South Australia with +eight.5k (unemployment rose to five.9% from 5.7% on rising participation).
March was a constructive replace from the Labour Power Survey suggesting that the non-cyclical facet of the financial system (we suspect the continuing rollout of the NDIS is supporting good points in not simply well being professionals but in addition in white collar professionals) is offering ongoing assist for employment good points particularly outdoors of NSW.
However word, the state that’s on the forefront of the downturn in dwelling funding, NSW, has seen pattern in employment good points gradual from 50.5k per thirty days in January to 13.7k per thirty days in March. We’re carefully watching the impression that the downturn on development, and the impression of falling home costs could have on consumption, could have on the cyclical employment in that state.