April Labour Drive Survey: Whole employment: 28.4k from 27.7k (revised from 25.7k). Unemployment fee: 5.2% from 5.1% (revised 5.zero%). Participation fee: 65.eight% from 65.7% (unrevised 65.7%).
April was a combined replace from the Labour Drive Survey. Positive factors in complete employment stay on a strong development with unemployment rising as a consequence of surge in participation. As we famous in our preview whereas the enterprise surveys counsel that winter is coming for the Australian labour market we stay within the southern hemisphere autumn.
Whole employment rose 28.4k in April, stronger than the market median estimate of +15ok and Westpac’s estimate of +10ok. The three month common is now 22.4k from 24.9k in March and 22.0k in February indicative of sound employment progress up to now in 2019.
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Within the yr to April employment has lifted 323ok or 2.6percentyr, an acceleration from the 305ok/2.4percentyr in March and 274ok and a pair of.2percentyr on the finish on 2019. For now, the ABS is reporting a a lot stronger labour market than what’s represented within the varied enterprise surveys. With the collapse of the employment indicators within the AI Group and NAB enterprise surveys, Westpac’s Jobs Index is now pointing a tempo of progress round 2.0percentyr by This autumn which is in keeping with what Job Advertisements is suggesting however we warning that ABS Job Vacancies are suggesting a extra sturdy image.
Within the month, full-time employment fell 6.3k in April to be up 248.1k/2.9% within the yr whereas part-time employment gained 34.7k to be up 74.8k or 1.9% within the yr. Hours labored lifted zero.1% to be up 1.9percentyr, a moderation from the three.0percentyr in March. However it’s value nothing that this yr noticed Easter and the ANZAC holidays fall very shut to one another with many profiting from that to have an prolonged vacation.
The large shock within the April survey was the bounce within the unemployment fee from 5.1% (was 5.05% revised to five.07%) to five.2% (5.20%). This was the results of a bounce within the participation fee to a brand new report excessive of 65.85%. This bounce in participation noticed a 49.6k bounce within the labour pressure though progress within the working age inhabitants slowed to +25.9k in April from +39.0k in March.
It’s value nothing that the rise in participation continues to be a feminine story. Within the month male participation fell to 70.89% from 70.95% in March whereas feminine participation hit a brand new report excessive of 60.98% from 60.61% in March.
The impression of rising participation has been vital. If participation had held across the common it was for the final half of 2018 (65.58%) then the unemployment fee in April would have been four.eight%. However we warning that it’s regular for sturdy employment progress to be related to rising participation, simply as it’s regular for weak employment progress to be related to falling participation.
By state, unemployment rose in NSW (four.5% from four.three%), Victoria (four.9% from four.6%), South Australian (6.1% from 5.9%), WA (6.1% from 6.zero%) and Tasmania (6.eight% from 6.7%).
Employment beneficial properties within the month had been concentrated in NSW (+25.1k), Qld (5.4k) and WA (6.4k). Employment fell in Victoria (–7.6k). When it comes to participation NSW noticed the biggest bounce (from 65.2% to 65.6%) whereas it fell in Victoria (65.9% from 66.zero%)
However observe, the state that’s on the forefront of the downturn in dwelling funding, NSW, has seen the three month common acquire in employment gradual from 13.2k monthly in January to five.6k monthly in April. We predict falling home costs in NSW can have an extra adverse impression on dwelling development and consumption and thus cyclical employment in that state. However the dwelling development correction is already extra mature in NSW in comparison with Victoria and we predict to see Victorian employment soften as we transfer by the second half of 2019.